So what is this magic? It all comes down to common sense. Here
are a few truths:
1. Nobody
can see into the future - this means every decision - every trade - is a 50/50 proposition.
a. all attemps to find a technical "edge" prove to be no better than 50/50 when
adequetly backtested
b. all attempts to use fundementals
to find an "edge" prove equally fruitless
2.
There are costs to trading - these are commissions and slippage. So a 50/50 bet with fees involved - win or lose - means
winning less than 50 % of the time!
3. In order to "win" we need to change the odds - we need to move the odds
in our favor.
a. selling options
has a built in premium edge over buying options because of the "shift of risk"
b. implied volatility tends to overstate the risk
c. placing trades some percentage of a Standard Deviation (SD) of expected move (based
on implied volatility) can lead to high Probability of Profit (PoP)
d. selling something against what we own (or are short) will reduce the cost basis - and increase our
odds of making a profit
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